2018 Oscar Predictions

When it comes to the Academy Awards, Rated Greg becomes Jaded Greg.  A four hour telecast with a history of championing mostly out of touch movies does not have me excited for Sunday night.  I mean, when’s the last time you thought about The King’s Speech, or even Argo?  I’ll admit last year did buck the trend and get things mostly right, but part of me fears the voters will reverse course faster than me in the produce section.  Nonetheless, here are my predictions for the 2018 ceremony.

Best Picture

  • The odds-on favorite: Three Billboards (9 to 10 odds)
  • What will win: Dunkirk
  • What should win:  Get Out*
  • What deserved a nomination:  I, Tonya

Years from now after there are Get Out video games, Get Out lunch boxes, and an annual Get Out college football bowl game, people will wonder how on Earth Get Out didn’t win Best Picture.

Best Actress

  • The odds-on favorite: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards (1 to 25 odds)
  • Who will win: Frances McDormand
  • Who should win:  Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
  • Who deserved a nomination:  Charlize Theron – Atomic Blonde*

I know I’m out on an island on this one, but I believe stunt work should be just as valued in the acting category as a powerful soliloquy.

Best Actor

  • The odds-on favorite: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour (1 to 25 odds)
  • Who will win: Timothee Chalamet – CMBYN (in a shocker)
  • Who should win:  Timothee Chalamet
  • Who deserved a nomination:  Robert Pattinson – Good Time*

Pattinson showed 80’s De Niro level potential in Good Time.  I’m as surprised as you are.

Best Supporting Actress

  • The odds-on favorite: Allison Janney – I, Tonya (1 to 6 odds)
  • Who will win: Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
  • Who should win:  Laurie Metcalf
  • Who deserved a nomination:  Bria Vinate – The Florida Project

Best Supporting Actor

  • The odds-on favorite: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards (1 to 8 odds)
  • Who will win: Sam Rockwell
  • Who should win:  Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project*
  • Who deserved a nomination:  Ray Romano – The Big Sick

Not enough is being made that Willem Dafoe was pretty much the ONLY professional actor in The Florida Project.  Without him I don’t think that movie works nearly as well as it does.

Best Director

  • The odds-on favorite: Guillermo Del Toro – The Shape of Water (1 to 10 odds)
  • Who will win: Guillermo Del Toro
  • Who should win:  Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
  • Who deserved a nomination:  Sean Baker – The Florida Project

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The odds-on favorite: James Ivory – Call Me By Your Name (1 to 14 odds)
  • Who will win: Dee Rees – Mudbound
  • Who should win:  Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game
  • Who deserved a nomination: N/A*

This is the one category I have zero beef with.  The fact that they nominated Logan for a screenplay award sure throws a wrench in my “out of touch” accusation.

Best Original Screenplay

  • The odds-on favorite: Jordan Peele – Get Out (1 to 2 odds)
  • Who will win: Jordan Peele
  • Who should win:  Jordan Peele
  • Who deserved a nomination:  Taylor Sheridan – Wind River

Best Cinemetography

  • The odds-on favorite: Blade Runner (1 to 8 odds)
  • Who will win: Blade Runner
  • Who should win:  Blade Runner
  • Who deserved a nomination:  The Florida Project

Best Visual Effects

  • The odds-on favorite: Blade Runner (9 to 10 odds)
  • Who will win: War for the Planet of the Apes
  • Who should win:  War for the Planet of the Apes
  • Who deserved a nomination:  Logan

 

I also updated the 2017 Rankings below:

Screen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.49.18 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.49.46 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.50.03 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.50.39 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.51.01 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.51.24 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.51.48 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.52.18 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.52.39 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.53.06 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.53.34 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.54.21 PMScreen Shot 2018-03-03 at 2.54.40 PM

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